India to Face Surge in Cancer Cases by 2045: Warns ICMR

This projection is part of a study that assessed the incidence and impact of cancer across BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has projected a significant rise in cancer cases and deaths in India between 2022 and 2045.

This projection is part of a study that assessed the incidence and impact of cancer across BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

The findings raise serious concerns for India's healthcare system, particularly regarding the anticipated increases in oral and breast cancers.

The research team, consisting of Anita Nath, Ruchita Taneja, Yamini Saraswathi Thadi, Gokul Sarveswaran, and Prashant Mathur, reported a 12.8% increase in cancer incidence in India by 2025 compared to 2020.

ICMR’s Key Findings

Among Indian men, oral cancer, particularly lip and mouth cancers, remains the most prevalent, largely attributed to high tobacco consumption.

In women, breast cancer is the leading type, with cervical cancer also posing a significant risk. The study also notes that lung cancer is the most common cancer among women in China.

The researchers pointed out that India exhibits a notably higher incidence of oral cancer compared to other countries, primarily due to both smoked and smokeless tobacco use.

Additionally, low socioeconomic status has been identified as a contributing factor to the increased risk of oral cancer.

In terms of cancer-related deaths, lung cancer ranks as the leading cause across BRICS nations, except in India, where breast cancer is the foremost concern among women.

The study highlights that oral cancer has a substantial impact on the health of Indian men, while breast cancer significantly affects women, particularly in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

According to the findings, Russia has the highest cancer incidence rates for both genders, while South Africa reports the highest cancer-related deaths among women.

The study also underscores the substantial economic burden that cancer imposes on BRICS countries.

A separate analysis published in Cancer Epidemiology indicates that BRICS nations account for 42% of global cancer-related deaths. China experiences the highest total productivity loss, estimated at $28 billion, whereas South Africa faces the greatest cost per cancer death at $101,000.

With India and South Africa expected to witness the largest increases in new cancer cases over the next two decades, researchers urge governments and health authorities to implement strategies to reduce risk factors and enhance healthcare systems.

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